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81.
A hybrid fuzzy-stochastic water-management (FSWM) model is developed for agricultural sustainability under uncertainty, based on advancement of a multistage fuzzy-stochastic quadratic programming (MFSQP) approach. In MFSQP, uncertainties presented in terms of fuzziness and randomness can be incorporated within a multilayer scenario tree, such that revised decisions are permitted in each time period based on the realized values of the uncertain events. Moreover, fuzzy quadratic terms are used in the objective function to minimize the variation of satisfaction degrees among the constraints; it allows an increased flexibility in controlling the system risk in the optimization process. Results of the case study indicate that useful solutions for the planning of agricultural water management have been obtained. In the FSWM model, a number of policies for agricultural water supply are conducted. The results obtained can help decision makers to identify desired water-allocation schemes for agricultural sustainability under uncertainty, particularly when limited water resources are available for multiple competing users.  相似文献   
82.
The availability of public recreational facilities is being threatened by growing demands, limited supplies, and declining government funding. In response to these pressures, the economic potential of agroforestry for supplementing operating budgets of public recreational parks is examined in a case study park consisting of 324 hectares. Agroforestry enterprises native to the area were selected for development on 70 hectares of the site. Linear programming was used to determine the optimum combinations of 23 agroforestry regimes composed of the following activities: 1) conventional forestry planting, tree density of 1682 trees/hectare, 2) the selected agroforestry planting with hay, tree density of 1495 trees/hectare, 3) the selected agroforestry planting with grazing, 4) hay production, and 5) rental of pasture for grazing. The objective function of the study was to maximize the net present value of the study site subject to land, labor, capital, and minimum annual income constraints. The preferred optimal regime generated $1782 per hectare from an agroforestry planting configuration of 1495 trees/hectare with 75 percent hay, 25 percent grazing, and no annual income requirements. Minimum annual income requirements of $2400 and $4800 were feasible but suboptimal from a net present value criteria. The study found that agroforestry could be used to privatize selective activities of public recreational parks and thus enable public agencies to provide these facilities more effectively.  相似文献   
83.
Agroforestry has been considered a viable land-use system particularly in the tropical regions. In developing or designing agroforestry systems, various concerns have to be addressed namely: (1) economic; (2) biological and physical; and (3) silvicultural and ecological considerations. This paper addresses these concerns from an interdisciplinary perspective. A land-use allocation model which ensures the simultaneous consideration of these concerns is proposed.  相似文献   
84.
The objective of this paper is to investigate potential use of a spatially constrained harvest scheduling model for biodiversity concerns. Change in the degree of biodiversity is represented only by spatial characteristics of harvesting patterns of forest stands with different exclusion periods applied to adjacent forest stands. A spatially constrained harvest scheduling model called SSMART (Scheduling System of Management Alternatives foR Timber-harvest) is used for the analysis. It is one of the heuristics to solve a spatially constrained harvest scheduling problem by using the partitioning heuristic. The algorithm incorporated into SSMART is designed to seek a solution for a multicriteria problem with present net value maximum, meeting spatial feasibility and minimizing period-to-period harvest flow fluctuation, approximating even-flow constraints within the 0–1 integer programming framework. Our experimental analysis shows that the longer exclusion period, the less the harvest flow level and the total present net value are derived and the more heterogeneous the forest structure becomes in terms of the forest stand age distribution. It is also shown that the three exclusion period results in a stable forest stand age distribution over the time horizon for our experimental forest. This research supported by the Grants-in-Aid for Scientific Research (No. 09041071) from the Ministry of Education, Science, Sports, and Culture of Japan.  相似文献   
85.
检查法林分生长预测及择伐模拟研究   总被引:5,自引:0,他引:5  
李法胜  于政中 《林业科学》1994,30(6):531-539
检查法是一种适合于异龄林经营的集约作业方法,由于目前试验时间还较短(第1择伐周期1987-1992年),需要对其长期经营效果作出预测。文中提出了一种修正参数预测模型(MPPM)和线性规划方法相结合对于林分进行生长预测和择伐模拟研究的方法。拟合林分直径分布采用了形状灵活的Weibull分布形式,使得这种方法很适合于异龄林分(反J形直径分布)的生长预测(当然也适于同龄林),特别是当径阶株数出现突然变化  相似文献   
86.
本文以林分生长模型为基础,将林分的经营指数作为状态变量,将主伐时林分平均直径作为目标,将达到这一目标时林分总收获蓄积量作为指标函数,建立了离散确定性动态规划模型,编制了计算机模拟系统。利用此系统即可对落叶松不同培育目标下的最佳间伐时间、间伐强度和主伐年龄等进行决策。结果表明,优化决策方法在保留株数、间伐次数和总收获蓄积量上都优于一般决策方法,它既可对落叶松林分进行生长预测,也可为制定经营单位的经营  相似文献   
87.
城市道路网信息管理系统研究   总被引:1,自引:2,他引:1  
针对国内城市交通规划缺乏完整的道路信息资料 ,提出了如何利用功能完善的EMME/2交通规划软件结合中国的交通特性 ,进行城市路网信息资料的获取 ,并提出相应的数据库记录规定 ,据此研制开发了城市道路网信息管理系统。  相似文献   
88.
The cutting technic for thePinus elliottii plantation of the multi-benefit management pattern in the hilly region of Jiangxi Province was studied by establishing the model of growth progress according to Richards function and simulating the tending cutting on computer by use of dynamic programming. The results showed that the best time for the initial thinning was at tree age of 8–10 and final cutting was at tree age of 25. The optimal thinning project was 3 times of thinning cutting including the first thinning, and the thinning time was at tree ages of 8, 12 and 16, respectively. Their thinning intensities were separately 950, 700 and 300 trunks per hectare, and the preserved density was 550 trunks per hectare until the final cutting Foundation item: This study was supported by Natural Science Foundation of Jiangxi Province (A grant 0330023) Biography: WANG Qing-chun (1970-), male, Ph. Doctor, Senior Engineer in Academy of Forest Inventory & Planning, Jiangxi, Nanchang 330046, P.R. China. Responsible editor: Song Funan  相似文献   
89.
In the Philippines, smallholder farmers have become major timber producers. But the systems of timber production practiced have several limitations. In intercropping systems, the practice of severe branch and/or root pruning reduces tree-crop competition and increases annual crop yields, but is detrimental to tree growth and incompatible with commercial timber production. In even-aged woodlots, lack of regular income and poor tree growth, resulting from farmers’ reluctance to thin their plantations, are major constraints to adoption and profitable tree farming. In the municipality of Claveria, Misamis Oriental, the recent practice of planting trees on widely spaced (6–8 m) contour grass strips established for soil conservation suggests ways to improve the adoptability (i.e., profitability, feasibility and acceptability) of timber-based agroforestry systems. Assuming that financial benefits are the main objective of timber tree farmers, we develop a simple linear programming (LP) model for the optimal allocation of land to monocropping and tree intercropping that maximizes the net present value of an infinite number of rotations and satisfies farmers’ resource constraints and regular income requirements. The application of the LP model to an average farmer in Claveria showed that cumulative additions of widely spaced tree hedgerows provides higher returns to land, and reduce the risk of agroforestry adoption by spreading over the years labour and capital investment costs and the economic benefits accruing to farmers from trees. Therefore, incremental planting of widely spaced tree hedgerows can make farm forestry more adoptable and thus benefit a larger number of resource-constrained farmers in their evolution towards more diverse and productive agroforestry systems.  相似文献   
90.
In this study, we analyse the economic and managerial aspects of option values related to having a mixed-species stand. As an example, we look at a mixed Norway spruce and Sitka spruce stand in Denmark when timing and intensity of future climate, and its effect on tree growth, are uncertain. Assuming that tree growth follows a discrete non-stationary stochastic process, we use dynamic programming to optimise the harvest distribution between the two species.

The results show that facing growth uncertainty caused by potential climate change implies an option value. Such uncertainty can be a potential advantage as long as we are able to maintain flexibility, keep decisions open, and there is a chance that climatic change will benefit some species. We analyse the model under different uncertainty assumptions and show that the larger changes we expect, the higher is the option value at any time during the stand’s life and, hence, we keep, on average, both tree species in the stand for a longer period of time. Moreover, we find that the adjustments may take place rather late in the rotation, a result brought about by the significance of the option value, which makes it optimal to maintain a reasonable stocking of both species.  相似文献   

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