A hybrid fuzzy-stochastic water-management (FSWM) model is developed for agricultural sustainability under uncertainty, based on advancement of a multistage fuzzy-stochastic quadratic programming (MFSQP) approach. In MFSQP, uncertainties presented in terms of fuzziness and randomness can be incorporated within a multilayer scenario tree, such that revised decisions are permitted in each time period based on the realized values of the uncertain events. Moreover, fuzzy quadratic terms are used in the objective function to minimize the variation of satisfaction degrees among the constraints; it allows an increased flexibility in controlling the system risk in the optimization process. Results of the case study indicate that useful solutions for the planning of agricultural water management have been obtained. In the FSWM model, a number of policies for agricultural water supply are conducted. The results obtained can help decision makers to identify desired water-allocation schemes for agricultural sustainability under uncertainty, particularly when limited water resources are available for multiple competing users. 相似文献
The availability of public recreational facilities is being threatened by growing demands, limited supplies, and declining
government funding. In response to these pressures, the economic potential of agroforestry for supplementing operating budgets
of public recreational parks is examined in a case study park consisting of 324 hectares. Agroforestry enterprises native
to the area were selected for development on 70 hectares of the site. Linear programming was used to determine the optimum
combinations of 23 agroforestry regimes composed of the following activities: 1) conventional forestry planting, tree density
of 1682 trees/hectare, 2) the selected agroforestry planting with hay, tree density of 1495 trees/hectare, 3) the selected
agroforestry planting with grazing, 4) hay production, and 5) rental of pasture for grazing. The objective function of the
study was to maximize the net present value of the study site subject to land, labor, capital, and minimum annual income constraints.
The preferred optimal regime generated $1782 per hectare from an agroforestry planting configuration of 1495 trees/hectare
with 75 percent hay, 25 percent grazing, and no annual income requirements. Minimum annual income requirements of $2400 and
$4800 were feasible but suboptimal from a net present value criteria. The study found that agroforestry could be used to privatize
selective activities of public recreational parks and thus enable public agencies to provide these facilities more effectively. 相似文献
Agroforestry has been considered a viable land-use system particularly in the tropical regions. In developing or designing agroforestry systems, various concerns have to be addressed namely: (1) economic; (2) biological and physical; and (3) silvicultural and ecological considerations. This paper addresses these concerns from an interdisciplinary perspective. A land-use allocation model which ensures the simultaneous consideration of these concerns is proposed. 相似文献
The objective of this paper is to investigate potential use of a spatially constrained harvest scheduling model for biodiversity
concerns. Change in the degree of biodiversity is represented only by spatial characteristics of harvesting patterns of forest
stands with different exclusion periods applied to adjacent forest stands. A spatially constrained harvest scheduling model
called SSMART (Scheduling System of Management Alternatives foR Timber-harvest) is used for the analysis. It is one of the
heuristics to solve a spatially constrained harvest scheduling problem by using the partitioning heuristic. The algorithm
incorporated into SSMART is designed to seek a solution for a multicriteria problem with present net value maximum, meeting
spatial feasibility and minimizing period-to-period harvest flow fluctuation, approximating even-flow constraints within the
0–1 integer programming framework. Our experimental analysis shows that the longer exclusion period, the less the harvest
flow level and the total present net value are derived and the more heterogeneous the forest structure becomes in terms of
the forest stand age distribution. It is also shown that the three exclusion period results in a stable forest stand age distribution
over the time horizon for our experimental forest.
This research supported by the Grants-in-Aid for Scientific Research (No. 09041071) from the Ministry of Education, Science,
Sports, and Culture of Japan. 相似文献
The cutting technic for thePinus elliottii plantation of the multi-benefit management pattern in the hilly region of Jiangxi Province was studied by establishing the
model of growth progress according to Richards function and simulating the tending cutting on computer by use of dynamic programming.
The results showed that the best time for the initial thinning was at tree age of 8–10 and final cutting was at tree age of
25. The optimal thinning project was 3 times of thinning cutting including the first thinning, and the thinning time was at
tree ages of 8, 12 and 16, respectively. Their thinning intensities were separately 950, 700 and 300 trunks per hectare, and
the preserved density was 550 trunks per hectare until the final cutting
Foundation item: This study was supported by Natural Science Foundation of Jiangxi Province (A grant 0330023)
Biography: WANG Qing-chun (1970-), male, Ph. Doctor, Senior Engineer in Academy of Forest Inventory & Planning, Jiangxi, Nanchang 330046,
P.R. China.
Responsible editor: Song Funan 相似文献
In the Philippines, smallholder farmers have become major timber producers. But the systems of timber production practiced
have several limitations. In intercropping systems, the practice of severe branch and/or root pruning reduces tree-crop competition
and increases annual crop yields, but is detrimental to tree growth and incompatible with commercial timber production. In
even-aged woodlots, lack of regular income and poor tree growth, resulting from farmers’ reluctance to thin their plantations,
are major constraints to adoption and profitable tree farming. In the municipality of Claveria, Misamis Oriental, the recent
practice of planting trees on widely spaced (6–8 m) contour grass strips established for soil conservation suggests ways to
improve the adoptability (i.e., profitability, feasibility and acceptability) of timber-based agroforestry systems. Assuming
that financial benefits are the main objective of timber tree farmers, we develop a simple linear programming (LP) model for
the optimal allocation of land to monocropping and tree intercropping that maximizes the net present value of an infinite
number of rotations and satisfies farmers’ resource constraints and regular income requirements. The application of the LP
model to an average farmer in Claveria showed that cumulative additions of widely spaced tree hedgerows provides higher returns
to land, and reduce the risk of agroforestry adoption by spreading over the years labour and capital investment costs and
the economic benefits accruing to farmers from trees. Therefore, incremental planting of widely spaced tree hedgerows can
make farm forestry more adoptable and thus benefit a larger number of resource-constrained farmers in their evolution towards
more diverse and productive agroforestry systems. 相似文献
In this study, we analyse the economic and managerial aspects of option values related to having a mixed-species stand. As an example, we look at a mixed Norway spruce and Sitka spruce stand in Denmark when timing and intensity of future climate, and its effect on tree growth, are uncertain. Assuming that tree growth follows a discrete non-stationary stochastic process, we use dynamic programming to optimise the harvest distribution between the two species.
The results show that facing growth uncertainty caused by potential climate change implies an option value. Such uncertainty can be a potential advantage as long as we are able to maintain flexibility, keep decisions open, and there is a chance that climatic change will benefit some species. We analyse the model under different uncertainty assumptions and show that the larger changes we expect, the higher is the option value at any time during the stand’s life and, hence, we keep, on average, both tree species in the stand for a longer period of time. Moreover, we find that the adjustments may take place rather late in the rotation, a result brought about by the significance of the option value, which makes it optimal to maintain a reasonable stocking of both species. 相似文献